Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 5.1 | 4.7% | 36 | 0.31% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 13.9 | 14.8% | 113 | 0.83% | 145 | 1.07% |
| 20-29 | 41 | 19.6 | 22.8% | 174 | 0.83% | 208 | 0.99% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 13.4 | 13.9% | 106 | 0.78% | 128 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 24 | 11.3 | 12.6% | 96 | 0.92% | 106 | 1.01% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 10.7 | 11.4% | 87 | 0.69% | 102 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 10.3 | 11.3% | 86 | 0.75% | 108 | 0.94% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.0 | 8.4% | 64 | 0.61% | 81 | 0.77% |
| All ages | 178 | 92.3 | 100% | 762 | 0.73% | 920 | 0.88% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.7 | 3.3% | 17 | 0.22% | 22 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 3.9 | 7.9% | 41 | 0.49% | 55 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 5.7 | 11.6% | 60 | 0.84% | 94 | 1.32% |
| 30-39 | 24 | 12.0 | 19% | 98 | 1.17% | 125 | 1.49% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 10.6 | 16.7% | 86 | 1.11% | 115 | 1.48% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 9.9 | 16.9% | 87 | 0.9% | 123 | 1.27% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 9.1 | 14.5% | 75 | 0.89% | 98 | 1.17% |
| 70+ | 10 | 5.6 | 10.9% | 56 | 0.79% | 72 | 1.01% |
| All ages | 136 | 58.4 | 100% | 516 | 0.8% | 700 | 1.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.8% | 6 | 0.11% | 7 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.0 | 14.2% | 47 | 0.87% | 52 | 0.96% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 6.0 | 15.1% | 50 | 1.11% | 67 | 1.48% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 5.0 | 13.6% | 45 | 0.83% | 64 | 1.18% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 6.0 | 18.1% | 60 | 1.21% | 75 | 1.51% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.1 | 12.7% | 42 | 0.62% | 62 | 0.91% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.3 | 13.9% | 46 | 0.73% | 54 | 0.85% |
| 70+ | 7 | 3.7 | 9.9% | 33 | 0.52% | 46 | 0.73% |
| All ages | 46 | 37.0 | 100% | 332 | 0.73% | 431 | 0.95% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.1% | 8 | 0.07% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.7 | 9.4% | 36 | 0.22% | 49 | 0.3% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 11.0 | 28.1% | 108 | 0.51% | 145 | 0.68% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 5.4 | 14% | 54 | 0.4% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.4 | 13.8% | 53 | 0.39% | 77 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 7.3 | 16.6% | 64 | 0.45% | 79 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.0 | 8.8% | 34 | 0.24% | 61 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 0 | 3.1 | 7.3% | 28 | 0.22% | 41 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 20 | 40.9 | 100% | 385 | 0.33% | 537 | 0.45% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 12.1 | 5% | 101 | 0.17% | 129 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 29.6 | 11.6% | 234 | 0.33% | 337 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 37 | 62.0 | 24% | 482 | 0.46% | 643 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 42.1 | 16.7% | 336 | 0.44% | 450 | 0.59% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 38.4 | 14.7% | 296 | 0.45% | 409 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 27 | 34.0 | 13.4% | 270 | 0.41% | 361 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 20.7 | 8.4% | 168 | 0.31% | 231 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 8 | 16.6 | 6.1% | 122 | 0.25% | 160 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 179 | 255.6 | 100% | 2009 | 0.37% | 2720 | 0.5% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 109 | 147.1 | 3.7% | 1306 | 0.2% | 1782 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 296 | 370.9 | 9.6% | 3347 | 0.44% | 4655 | 0.61% |
| 20-29 | 483 | 659.7 | 17% | 5940 | 0.78% | 8332 | 1.1% |
| 30-39 | 466 | 617.4 | 16% | 5566 | 0.74% | 7825 | 1.03% |
| 40-49 | 455 | 583.0 | 15% | 5231 | 0.75% | 7244 | 1.04% |
| 50-59 | 464 | 641.9 | 16.7% | 5827 | 0.71% | 8230 | 1.01% |
| 60-69 | 343 | 463.4 | 11.9% | 4144 | 0.55% | 5840 | 0.77% |
| 70+ | 267 | 396.3 | 10% | 3502 | 0.55% | 4949 | 0.77% |
| All ages | 2883 | 3879.7 | 100% | 34863 | 0.6% | 48857 | 0.84% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.9 | 106.6 | 99.4 | 92.3 | 34.9 | 32.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108.3 | 58.4 | 32.7 | 30.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95.3 | 37 | 21.1 | 29.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.4 | 29.6 | 68.1 | 40.9 | 30.9 | 19.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.8 | 47.4 | 61.9 | 255.6 | 175.9 | 19.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.9 | 61.5 | 110.1 | 3879.7 | 2927.9 | 26.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 14.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.4 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1883"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges